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About this paper
Mike Wu, Yura Perov, Frank Wood, Hongseok Yang
The authors present an Excel add-in that conditions probabilistic spreadsheet models on observed data using an ACTUAL operation, while retaining workbook formulas. It implements sequential Monte Carlo and black-box variational inference to update uncertain quantities. In a US GDP growth regression for 1950 to 1983, BBVI estimates a slope mean of 0.098 and SD of 0.019, close to ground truth; the prototype is slow.
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