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About this paper
Biobele J. Brown, Alexander A. Przybylski, Petru Manescu, Fabio Caccioli, Gbeminiyi Oyinloye, Muna Elmi, Michael J. Shaw, Vijay Pawar and 15 more
LEMPS forecasts next-month malaria prevalence among children screened through services in Ibadan, using local monthly records from 1996–2017 and an Elastic Net model. It was trained on 1996–2014 and tested on 2015–2017. Across six forecast tasks, 80% of 216 task-output predictions fell within the study’s asymmetric error band; results establish performance only for this local service-based dataset.
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