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About this paper
Frank Wood, Andrew Warrington, Saeid Naderiparizi, Christian Weilbach, Vaden Masrani, William Harvey, Adam Scibior, Boyan Beronov and 3 more
The authors present a method for screening policy controls by conditioning epidemiological simulators on desired future outcomes. Rejection sampling retains controls whose simulated trajectories meet a goal. In an SEI₃R model, a deterministic threshold required a 37.5% transmission reduction, while sampled parameter uncertainty required about 50% for 90% modeled compliance; these findings are conditional on the model, not real-world validation.
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