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About this paper

Daniel Björkegren, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Samsun Knight

The authors develop a strategy-robust model that predicts outcomes after people respond to a decision rule. It estimates the costs of changing behavior from randomized incentives, then selects a rule for the behavior people are likely to exhibit. In a Kenyan smartphone-app experiment, transparent implementation yielded pooled RMSE of $4.31 versus $4.93 for LASSO; evidence is limited to this setting.

Summary by alphaXiv.

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