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About this paper
Thomas Gaskin, Guven Demirel, Marie-Therese Wolfram, Andrew Duncan
The authors infer food-trade costs between countries from observed flows using inverse optimal transport, without prespecified factors. After China imposed an 80% tariff on Australian barley in May 2020, trade rerouted while prices barely moved. For Ukrainian wheat after Russia’s invasion, costs fell 9% in Europe and rose 22% in Sub-Saharan Africa; these are model-inferred, not causal estimates.
Summary by alphaXiv.
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