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About this paper
Wenbin Zhou, Shixiang Zhu
The authors present topology-aware calibration for forecasting rooftop solar installations across distribution circuits and substations. It uses each circuit’s sibling circuits—those connected to the same substation—to calibrate intervals from simulated counts. On Indianapolis data, HPCP has coverage near the nominal 90% reference and the best plotted interval-size/coverage tradeoff at both levels. Validity is conditional on residual mixing assumptions.
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