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About this paper

Nick Pepper, Adam Keane, Amy Hodgkin, Dewi Gould, Edward Henderson, Lynge Lauritsen, Christos Vlahos, George De Ath and 6 more

The paper presents a probabilistic digital twin of London Area Control Centre en-route airspace for testing AI decision-support agents. It combines data, a physics-informed aircraft model, probabilistic trajectories, metrics, and controller review. For descending B738s in a week, mean-mode MAE was 16.77 versus 22.95 kt for CAS and 566.05 versus 1,009.22 ft/min for ROCD against BADA, validating the twin, not agent safety.

Key insights

  • Combining historical operational data with a probabilistic, physics-informed machine learning model allows for accurate reproduction of real-world traffic scenarios and their inherent uncertainties.
  • A structured assurance case, following the Trustworthy and Ethical Assurance (TEA) framework, provides quantitative evidence for the Digital Twin's accuracy and fidelity.
  • The Digital Twin forms a unified environment supporting AI agent development, benchmarking, and competency-based human-in-the-loop assessment by qualified Air Traffic Control Officers (ATCOs).

Summary by alphaXiv.

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