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About this paper
Mengzhu Liu, Long Qin, Chuan Ai, Zhengqiu Zhu, Hongru Liang, Fangfang Li, Chen Gao, Yong Li and 2 more
PCP predicts individual panic timing and collective peaks using a risk gate and an explicit path from beliefs through desires and emotions to intentions; an LLM estimates belief-to-desire transitions. On Hurricane Sandy, it achieved 75.66% accuracy across three timing classes and predicted the group peak with 7.07% count error and a two-step deviation. Delayed-panic recall was 0.0641; evaluation covered one disaster dataset.
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