Reproduce “Structure-Aware Graph Abstention for Reliable Selective Forecasting” on OpenResearch

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About this paper

Jianxiang Xie, Belal Alsinglawi

SASF adds a relational check to multivariate forecast release decisions, scoring whether predicted channel trajectories remain consistent with a learned global graph. It complements whole-forecast risk scoring rather than replacing it. On PatchTST Weather, validation-set thresholds transferred to test at 50% target coverage yield selective MSE 0.1443, versus 0.1792 for TEM, in one seed-2024 comparison; gains are not universal.

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