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About this paper

Raz Marshanski, Liran Nochumsohn, Mayank Jauhari, Boris N. Oreshkin, Omri Azencot

KGO forecasts probabilistic time-series futures by encoding observed history, extending latent states with Koopman dynamics, and transforming noise into samples through a single closed-form transport. A deterministic forecast is blended with samples using variable- and horizon-conditioned weights. Across 17 ProbTS settings, KGO has lowest CRPS in 13 and lowest NMAE in 16; this result is limited to evaluated benchmarks.

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