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About this paper
Francesco Immorlano, Elijah Tavares, Felix Draxler, Juan Nathaniel, Violette Launeau, Duncan Watson-Parris, Padhraic Smyth, Pierre Gentine and 1 more
The authors introduce a diffusion emulator generating daily temperature maps from 17 CMIP6 models and ERA5. At sampling, guidance balances each model with the observational distribution, shifting toward model influence farther into the future and under stronger forcing. In perfect-model tests, median warming-trajectory RMSE falls from 0.47–0.56 °C to 0.24–0.38 °C; these tests assess held-out archive models, not real-world futures.
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